Highlights of Economic Survery 2014-15

FY15 GDP growth seen around 7.4%.

Scope for big bang reforms.

Inflation showing declining trend in FY15.

Govt remains committed to fiscal consolidation.

FY16 GDP growth forecast seen around 8.1-8.5%.

Double digit eco growth now a possibility.

Raitionalisation of food subsidies need more effort.

FY16 retail inflation seen in the range of 5-5.5%.

Current Account Deficit pegged at 1.3% of GDP for FY15.

Need to monitor risks from US monetary policy easing.

Enhance revenue generation a priority for the government.

Daily Market Outlook for 27 Feb

The markets tanked heavily in trade on Thursday following freight hike across industries proposed in the Railway Budget.

The Sensex now seems headed towards the monthly Fibonacci support level at 28,500-odd levels, below which the next target would be 28,000.

On the positive front, the BSE index will now have to break and sustain above 28,960-odd levels for hopes of any pull-back in the remainder of the week.

This is going to be a long week, with markets open on Saturday on account of the Union Budget.

As per the daily Fibonacci charts, the Sensex on Friday, is likely to seek support around 28,605-28,560-28,515, while on the upside may face resistance around 28,890-28,935-28,980.

The NSE Nifty has closed decisively below the 20-DMA, with key momentum oscillators on the daily and the monthly charts in favour of the bears. However, there seem some hopes on the weekly charts, hence a pull-back cannot be ruled out.

In case of further selling, the Nifty may drop towards the lower-end of the Bollinger Band at 8,550-odd level.

Among the key momentum oscillators - the MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) and the Stochastic Slow are in favour of the bears. The ADX (Average Directional Index) and the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) are also showing signs of tiredness.

On Friday, the NSE Nifty may seek support around 8,640-8,625-8,610, while face resistance around 8,730-8,740-8,755.

The Bank Nifty may seek support around 18,420-18,385-18,350, while on the other hand face resistance around 18,655-18,690-18,730.

Highlights of Rail Budget 2015

Suresh Prabhu, Railway Minister, under the BJP-led Narendra Modi government today on 26 February, 2015, presented the Railway Budget for 2015-16.

Investment in Railways will have an multiplying effect on the rest of the economy.

In the next five years, priority is to increase capacity in the existing rail networks.

Railway ministry received more than 20,000 suggestions via social media.

To modrenise the rail travel.

Will increase annual freight traffic to 1.5 MT.

To increase annual passenger capacity from 21 million to 30 million.

Envisages Rs. 8.5 lakh crore investment plan for the next five year.

Operating Ratio for FY16 at 88.5 per cent vs. 91.8 per from for FY15.

No hike in passenger fare.

Freight hike proposed in the range of 0.8-10 per cent for grains, pulses, urea, coal, iron & steel, cement, LPG and kerosene.

To build additional new toilets at 650 stations.

To replace 17,000 toilets with vacuum toilets.

All India helpline number 138 will be operational from 1 March, 2015.

Toll free number 182 for security related issues.

SMS on mobile to a valid proof for travelling on trains.

Wi-Fi at all A-1 category stations is provided, to extend the service to B category 
stations too.

Lifts planned at major stations, Rs. 120 crore granted for the same.

Advance booking days to increased by 120 days.

To move towards paperless ticketing.

To develop 10 select stations to develop satellite terminals by FY16.

Feasibility study is on for high speed train between Mumbai and Ahmedabad.

Expansion of railway network to remote and backward area.

To revamp PPP model for Railways.

Announcement of new trains during the Parliament session.

Planned expenditure to increase by 52 per cent to 1.1 lakh crore next year.

Sensex trades soft ahead of Railway Budget

The markets have started trading on the Railway Budget day on a tentative note, with key benchmark indices in the negative terrain.

The Indian Railway Budget will be presented around 1100 hrs. today in the Parliament.

The Sensex slipped over 100 points to a low of 28,900. In the process, the BSE index seems to have taken support around the daily Fibonacci S-1 at 28,890-odd levels.

Going ahead, the bias for the rest of the day may be cautiously positive as long as the BSE index manages to sustain above 28,900-odd levels.

On the upside, the Sensex may look to bounce back into the positive zone and test a high around 29,125-odd levels.

On the other hand, in case, the BSE index breaks the support at 28,900, the index can drop to 28,820-odd levels.

Sun Pharma and Bajaj Auto are the major losers - down 1.7 per cent each at Rs. 876 and Rs. 2,145, respectively.

Infosys, Hindalco and Axis Bank are down a per cent each among the Sensex 30 stocks.

On the positive front, Sesa Sterlite has surged 1.7 per cent to Rs. 214.

BHEL and ONGC are the other notable gainers.

Daily Market Outlook for 26 Feb

The markets are likely to be choppy in a range, until the key events are over by the weekend.

For now, it seems, like the BSE Sensex may move in a broad range of 28,960-29,500, a break in either direction can create unexpected movement.

The bias is likely to be cautiously positive as long as the Sensex manages to sustain above 28,960. On the positive front, sustained trade above 29,230-odd level, can trigger a rally towards 29,400-29,500.

As per the daily Fibonacci charts, the Sensex on Thursday, is likely to seek support around 28,890-28,855-28,820, while on the upside may face resistance around 29,125-29,160-29,195.

The NSE Nifty seems to be hovering around the 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) for the last three trading sessions. The daily Bollinger Bands indicates a range of 8,550-8,975 in the near term.

Among the key momentum oscillators - the MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) and the Stochastic Slow are in favour of the bears. The ADX (Average Directional Index) and the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) however are positive.

On Thursday, the NSE Nifty may seek support around 8,735-8,720-8,710, while face resistance around 8,800-8,810-8,825.

The Bank Nifty may seek support around 18,590-18,550-18,505, while on the other hand face resistance around 18,870-18,915-18,960.

Market Outlook for 23-27 February

The markets are entering the biggest week of any calendar year - the Budget week on a tricky note.

The Sensex after taking support around the monthly S-1 (around 28,040) has bounced back strongly and touched a high of 29,522. The BSE index has given a minor buy signal on the monthly Fibonacci charts, and may now test 29,860-odd level on the upside.

This week, the BSE index is likely to move in a tight range of 28-960-29,500, a decisive break on either side can trigger a sharp movement in the particular direction.

Next week, the Sensex is likely to seek support around 29,065-29,010-28,960, while face resistance around 29,400-29,450-29,505.

The NSE Nifty has now bounced back above the 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average), which is 8,775. The NSE index is likely to trade with a positive bias as long as the NSE index sustains above the 20-DMA.

On the upside, the Nifty may test the upper-end of the Bollinger Band, which is around the 9,000-mark.

On the flip side, in case, the NSE index drops below the 20-DMA, the index may slide towards the lower-end of the Bollinger Band at 8,550.

Among the key momentum oscillators - the MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) is in neutral mode. The 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index), the ADX (Average Directional Index) and the Stochastic Slow are in favour of the bulls.

The weekly MACD, RSI and the ADX index are also positive. The Stochastic Slow is in neutral mode.

Next week, the Nifty may seek support around 8,780-8,768-8,753, while face resistance around 8,874-8,888-8,902.

The Bank Nifty may seek support around 18,800-18,720-18,645, while face resistance around 19,300-19,380-19,455.

Outlook on Key Commodities for the Week 23-27 February

With the Greece bailout uncertainty out of the way, one may see some sanity in key commodities next week, mainly Gold and Silver. The Eurozone has agreed for a four-month extension on the Greece bailout, Greece

According to reports, the Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis was quoted as saying -
The four-month period will be a time to rebuild new relations with Europe and the IMF.

Gold (down 2.3 per cent) and Silver (down per cent) suffered huge losses last week amid the uncertainty and fears of the talks failing.

GOLD OUTLOOK
Gold seems to be trading on a weak ground both on the daily and the weekly charts. As per the weekly charts, Gold is likely to witness downward pressure as long as prices remain below the 20-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) at $ 1,215 per ounce.

Sustained trade below the 20-WMA, can force Gold drop towards the lower-end of the Bollinger Band on the weekly charts - a target of $ 1,137 per ounce. 

Key momentum oscillators on the daily charts are also in favour of the bears. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), the ADX (Average Directional Index) and the Stochastic Slow are all in favour of the bears. The 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) however is near oversold zone.

As per the weekly Fibonacci charts, the NYMEX Gold futures can drop to $ 1,185-1,180.50-1,175.70, while on the upside can face resistance around $ 1,215.30-1,220-1,224.70.

SILVER OUTLOOK
The NYMEX Silver futures too have closed a wee bit below the 20-WMA - which is at $ 16.625.

However, the daily charts indicate near support for Silver around the lower-end of the Bollinger Band on the daily charts at $ 16.18-odd levels.

Among the key momentum oscillators on the daily charts - the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), the ADX (Average Directional Index) and the Stochastic Slow are all negative. The 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is near oversold zone.

As per the weekly Fibonacci charts, the NYMEX Silver futures can drop to $ 15.82-15.68-15.54, while on the upside can face resistance around $ 16.71-16.85-16.99.

CRUDE OIL OUTLOOK
The Crude Oil futures are likely to trade in range in the near term, as the upside for the energy contract seem to be capped around $ 54-56.50 on the daily charts. On the downside, the Crude Oil futures are likely to find considerable support around $47-48.

The overall trend for Crude Oil may turn positive only if the energy contract manages to sustain above $ 52 per barrel on a consistent basis. Failure to do so can trigger a re-test of its recent lows around $ 44-odd levels.

Among the key momentum oscillators on the daily charts - the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) and the Stochastic Slow are in favour of the bulls. The ADX (Average Directional Index) is still negative, while the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in neutral mode.

As per the weekly Fibonacci charts, the NYMEX Crude Oil futures can drop to $ 51.32-50.86-50.39, while on the upside can face resistance around $ 54.32-54.78-55.25.

Expect High Drama In Market Tomorrow

The BSE Sensex has rallied for the last seven trading sessions, gaining over 1,200-odd points in the same period.

After a minor buy signal on the weekly Fibonacci charts in trade on Wednesday, the BSE index has now given a stronger buy signal on the weekly Fibonacci charts on Thursday.

As per the weekly Fibonacci charts, the BSE index may attempt to test the weekly R-2 and R-3 at 29,650 and 29,785, respectively. The intra-day correction on Thursday, saw the Sensex take support around the expected level of 29,100-odd level.

As per the monthly Fibonacci charts, the BSE index seems on course towards 29,860-odd levels, after having taken support around the monthly S-1 (support) at 28,000-mark earlier this month.

As per the daily Fibonacci charts, the Sensex on Friday, is likely to seek support around 29,305-29,255-29,205, while on the upside may face resistance around 29,620-29,670-29,720.

The NSE Nifty seems to have created a 'Hanging Man' structure on the daily charts. Generally, a 'Hanging Man' at the top of the trend following a sharp rally indicates a likely trend reversal.

Hence, one needs to be prepared for high drama on the Street in the coming trading sessions. Apart from profit-taking or short-covering the upcoming Union Budget next week is likely to keep traders on their toes.

On the positive front, the NSE index has managed to close above the 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) for the fourth straight trading session.

The daily charts indicate that the NSE index may test the higher-end of the Bollinger Band around the 9,000-mark in the coming trading sessions. In case of a correction, the BSE index may take support around the 20-DMA at 8,770-odd level.

Among the key momentum oscillators - the MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) has turned positive on the daily charts. The ADX (Average Directional Index), the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) and the Stochastic Slow are also in favour of the bulls.

On Friday, the NSE Nifty may seek support around 8,850-8,835-8,820, while face resistance around 8,940-8,955-8,970.

The Bank Nifty may seek support around 19,025-18,965-18,910, while on the other hand face resistance around 19,410-19,470-19,530.

NYMEX Gold To Remain Bullish Above $ 1,210

The NYMEX Gold April futures have surged nearly 1.5 per cent to $ 1,216.80 - odd levels.

The NYMEX Gold contract has given a strong buy signal on the daily Fibonacci charts, as the yellow metal crossed the daily R-3 (resistance) at $ 1,210.20, and touched a high of $ 1,217.70 so far in trades.

Given the positive breakout on the daily charts, the NYMEX Gold futures are likely to trade with a bullish bias for the rest of the trading day as long as the Gold April contract sustains above $ 1,210 per ounce.

However, the overall trend remains bearish for the Gold futures, as the shiny metal is trading below all three key moving averages.

The 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) is at $ 1,247, the 200-DMA at $ 1,243 and the 50-DMA is at $ 1,236.50. The 20-DMA is also likely to slip below the 200-DMA and 50-DMA in the coming trading sessions.

Among the key momentum oscillators - the MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence), the Stochastic Slow and the ADX (Average Directional Index) are in favour of the bears. The 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is also negative, but nearly oversold territory.

Sensex, Nifty Looking Positive For 19 February

The BSE Sensex has given a minor buy signal on the weekly Fibonacci charts. The bias for the rest of the week is likely to remain mildly positive as long as the BSE index manages to sustain above 29,100-odd level.

As per the monthly Fibonacci charts, the BSE index seems to have taken support around the monthly S-1 (support) at 28,000-mark, and then bounced back. The pull-back can lead the BSE index towards the monthly minor resistance area at 29,600-odd level.

As per the daily Fibonacci charts, the Sensex on Thursday, is likely to seek support around 29,210-29,180-29,145, while on the upside may face resistance around 29,430-29,460-29,495.

The NSE Nifty is forming a 'V' shaped recovery on the daily charts, hence the NSE index may attempt to revisit its recent record highs nearly 9,000-odd mark.

However, the daily Bollinger Band indicates resistance around the higher-end at 8,980-odd level.

The short-term trend is positive, with the 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) above the 50-DMA (Daily Moving) Average. And also the Nifty firmly above the key moving averages.

Momentum oscillators are also on the verge of turning bullish - the MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) is on the verge of a positive breakout. The ADX (Average Directional Index), the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) and the Stochastic Slow are also in favour of the bulls. Hence, more upside seems likely.

On Thursday, the NSE Nifty may seek support around 8,835-8,825-8,815, while face resistance around 8,900-8,910-8,925.

The Bank Nifty may seek support around 19,215-19,185-19,160, while on the other hand face resistance around 19,380-19,405-19,430.